Is oil will be able to recovery

In addition, the expected decline in demand for energy, as well as fears of a possible recession, pushing prices towards the level of $ 75 in September of that year, but it loses 34% of its value. Then shift the geopolitical landscape again.

Iran, driven Bgilla of sanctions against nuclear Touhadtha, spooked investors who thought that the Persian regime may close the Strait of Hormuz, which could cause a global shortage of energy. This fear has led to a rise in oil prices to $ 110 a barrel in March 2012 or up to more than 47% compared with the lows in September.

More recently, specifically a year and a half ago, to increase production in the United States accompanied by a decline in global demand led to a surplus in supply, which is currently suffering from it. Oil fell from the highest price on July 14 at $ 106 for up to 43 dollars a barrel on January 15.

But oil as oil, the volatility in the markets have been useful for those who are prepared to pick up the knife. Federal Reserve Board's decision not to raise interest rates too quickly, along with the slowdown in the production of US shale drilling operations and violence in Yemen, led to the rise in oil prices once again, to $ 62 in May 2015, with gains of 43% from the lowest point It arrived during the concerns of oversupply.

It is clear that there is a trend here. First, it should be recognized that the sudden changes in geopolitical conditions affecting the prices of basic goods, but nevertheless the goods, in this case oil, has the tendency is clear and Sticky recovery.

Since the eighties of the last century until now, it whenever flooded Saudi Arabia, the oil market - which largely resembles what they are doing today - it is at the same time reduces the desert kingdom of its production of oil at the time, which contributes OPEC members with some reduction in production as a means of pushing up prices to show control of the oil markets.

But the current scene in the oil market has pushed the largest oil exporter in the world to keep pumping activity at record levels, in order to expel the young players in the market such as the exploration of shale oil in the United States and Canada at the same time grab additional market share.

It seems that Iran's intentions similar. After suffering for several years of sanctions, the Dhahran keen to increase production even export levels return to levels close to their levels prior to the imposition of sanctions. It means that there are another million barrels per day of Iranian oil would sink the market, which is undergoing surplus in supply effectively.

It seems as if prices in the race to the bottom in a way we have not seen before, a race both the Saudis and the Americans and the Iranians thought they would win it. So the question is who will be the first to break the pain of low prices?

For investors, it may be the most important question. How much time will pass even reverse the trend, and until the oil begins to recover?

Is oil recovery will be able to (or that this time in a different reality)?