A famous for measuring the market timing methods are similar to the following: You should never try to catch a knife during the fall. When it comes to the price of oil, anyway, maybe there should be different methods of measurement. What if you already know that there is a historical pattern: the knife is always located, bumping the ground, and then jumps back to the handle of the hand instead of the point of the knife blade? What do you do then?
The price of oil is still a knife, of course, is still a threat, but a far cry from the idea that falling knife. At today's prices, the oil appears like a knife so committed. In fact, historically, when crude oil drops significantly, it is always able to rise from the ashes. For those who have the courage to buy at the bottom, there are big profits can be achieved in the end.
Given the past ten years, we have seen some ups and downs in oil prices. While today's prices are considered the lowest level in the past decade, down 75% since the summer of 2014, this is not the biggest decline, down uninterrupted during this time frame.
In fact, that "the greatest honor of landing" afford goods declines over the six months that we have seen between July 2008 and January 2009. The price of oil in that period fell by up to 78%, from 147 dollars to 32 dollars a barrel.
Chronologically, the first serious drop in prices has occurred over the past decade between July 2006 and January 2007. During the summer of 2006, and oil prices have reached US $ 78 a barrel after the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah on Israel's northern border from among a host of other events.
Then prices began to decline after that, partly as a result of the hurricane season in the fall of 2006 - is usually the evacuation of oil rigs in those times in order to preserve the safety of workers, and thus lead to a decline in supply and rising prices - but this increase was relatively moderate. Therefore, production continued without interruption, resulting in a drop in oil prices, which had already been absorbed into the effects of the hurricane season.
By January 2007 was the sale of a barrel of oil for $ 50 only, which is a significant decline of 36.35%. Some readers may remember what happened after that: after six months of decline, during the month of July 2007, oil prices have returned to the same as the previous year's prices at $ 78 a barrel. This rise was supported by strong demand in Asia, and benefited from investors that returns exceeded 56% during the year and a half.
The other crash happened in oil prices this decade during the second half of 2008. The strong Asian demand, as well as new funds from investors who are exploring the commodity sector, it jumped oil to an unknown destination, to achieve the highest price has historically been at $ 147 a barrel.
Shortly thereafter, the global economic and financial crisis pushed both the financial world and the oil to kneel, as oil prices fell strongly to reach $ 32 a barrel during the month of January 2009, what constitutes a negative decline of -78%. Pessimists predicted end of the world at that time, but the reward of the share of optimists intelligent.
Oil prices rose to $ 73 in June 2009, or the equivalent of 126% more than its price six months ago. Many in the market believe this strange height (and difficult interpretation) as a direct result of the first quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve.
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